Research & analytics tools for prediction markets

Opinions don’t ship. Evidence does.

We start from a guess, update on reality, and repeat —
building the way a posterior updates a prior.

Join the private beta

We believe

Evidence over ego. Conclusions update when the evidence does — not when we feel more certain.

The user’s behavior outranks our taste. What people actually do beats what we hoped they’d do.

All opinions are hypotheses, not decisions. They don’t count until reality has voted.

We’d rather be corrected fast than be right slowly.

A prior is a starting point, never a conclusion.

What we’re building

The same discipline, pointed at the markets where every belief is priced and reality settles the score.

In private beta

Smart Money Monitor

Follow the money that's usually right.

A real-time data-analytics tool that tracks how proven, high-conviction traders are positioned across prediction markets — so you act on what the smart money does, not what the crowd says.

Live positions and moves of historically profitable traders
Alerts when smart money enters, exits, or flips a market
Filter by track record, conviction, and market

Smart money · live positions

Following the traders that are usually right

In private beta

Live Position Tracker

Your positions, live on your iPhone.

A native iOS & Mac dashboard-and-alerts app that keeps your prediction-market positions and the moves you watch live in the Dynamic Island and Live Activities — real-time and glanceable.

Dynamic Island & Live Activities for live P&L and prices
Push alerts on your positions and watched markets
Native iOS & Mac — stop refreshing a browser

iOS widget · Dynamic Island

Live P&L on your home screen and Dynamic Island

In private beta

Event Research Agent

Probabilities from evidence, not opinions.

An AI research agent that builds a general probability model for an event from facts and historical precedent — the Bayesian, posterior-first way — then updates fast as new evidence lands.

Bayesian event-probability models grounded in facts and past cases
Fast posterior updates the moment new evidence arrives
A transparent evidence trail you can interrogate — base rates, news, and money flow

Bayesian belief network

New evidence updates probabilities across the network

Join the private beta.

We open access gradually. Leave your email and we'll be in touch.

About

Posteri is a small studio of builders who believe a belief should update when the evidence does — not when we feel more certain. We work the way a posterior refines a prior: start from a hypothesis, let reality correct it, repeat. That same discipline goes into the research and analytics tools we build. We care more about being right than being loud.