Posteri
Private beta

Opinions don’t ship.
Evidence does.

Research & Analytics Toolkit

for Market Researcher & Trader

Public event research turns belief into observable signals. Posteri turns those signals back into evidence.

Evidence loop

  1. 01Observe

    Track public signals, source changes, and event movement.

  2. 02Model

    Convert new evidence into explicit probability updates.

  3. 03Alert

    Surface meaningful changes without asking users to refresh.

We start from a guess, update on reality, and repeat - building the way a posterior updates a prior.

Join the private betaSee the tools

Operating thesis

We believe

01

Evidence over ego. Conclusions update when the evidence does — not when we feel more certain.

02

The user’s behavior outranks our taste. What people actually do beats what we hoped they’d do.

03

All opinions are hypotheses, not decisions. They don’t count until reality has voted.

04

We’d rather be corrected fast than be right slowly.

05

A prior is a starting point, never a conclusion.

Private beta stack

What we’re building

The same discipline, pointed at public events where every belief is measured and reality settles the score.

In private beta

Smart Money Monitor

See where high-signal cohorts move before the crowd catches up.

A research-only analytics surface for smart-money signals across public event data. It shows which cohorts moved, what changed, and how confidence shifted - with no execution flow.

  • Smart-money cohort movement, divergence, and confidence shifts
  • Alerts when high-signal cohorts separate from market consensus
  • Evidence trail for each move: source quality, timing, and model impact
Smart money · cohort signals
Smart Money Monitor dashboard showing cohort watchlists, signal map, movement history, evidence trail, confidence scores, and no execution flow.
Smart-money monitoring for research workflows
In private beta

Live Alert Tracker

Market probability moves, glanceable and timely.

A native iOS and Mac alerting surface for watched markets, probability moves, source updates, and evidence changes - designed for monitoring and research workflows.

  • Dynamic Island & Live Activities for watched market probabilities
  • Push alerts when evidence moves a market materially
  • Native iOS & Mac surfaces for research workflows
iOS alerts · markets
iPhone mockups showing realtime market probability movement, Live Activity, Dynamic Island alert, market volume, evidence updates, and source quality.
Realtime alerts on iOS and Mac
In private beta

Event Research Agent

Probabilities from evidence, not opinions.

An AI research agent that builds a probability model from facts and historical precedent - the Bayesian, posterior-first way - then updates fast as new evidence lands.

  • Bayesian event-probability models grounded in facts and past cases
  • Fast posterior updates the moment new evidence arrives
  • A transparent evidence trail you can interrogate: base rates, source quality, and model changes
Bayesian belief network
Research agent mockup showing evidence cards, posterior timeline, base rates, and probability graph.
New evidence updates probabilities across the network

Access queue

Build with evidence.

We open access gradually. Leave your email and we’ll be in touch when the next cohort is ready.

Request access

Private beta
Access queueResearch cohort
Scope
Analytics + alerts
Surfaces
Web, iOS, Mac
Boundary
No execution flow

Research notes

Blog

Field notes on public event research, evidence loops, and alert infrastructure.

Read the notes

About Posteri

Posteri Studio.

We build research and alerting tools for people who let evidence change their minds. Start with a hypothesis, watch reality, and update fast.